Buckle up folks this is going to be a long post.

Now that the Hounds of clinched a playoff spot we can safely start to look at possible match ups for the first round, and more importantly, where will the Hounds be playing. With the loss at Rochester last Friday the Hounds lost any chance of a home playoff game in the first round. The highest position they can achieve is 5th place. How well Charlotte does in the next two games (and obviously the Hounds) will play a big role in the final standings. We’re not going to count our chickens before they hatch by looking forward to the second round. If we want to see our boys play in person there is only one match up we want… Harrisburg.

I’ve taken a look at the league standings and the 8 games this week that will determine playoff seeding. Some teams are pretty much a lock at certain spots, while others are completely up for grabs. I’ve made some predictions, familiarized myself with the tiebreaker rules, and crunched some numbers on a couple scenarios for the Hounds. After the jump I’ll break everything down and tell you who I think we’ll be playing in the first round of the playoffs.

 

I’ll preface this by saying I’m making a lot of assumptions here. The 8 playoff spots are locked going into the final week of the season. We may see teams resting some of their players, or playing for a draw instead of pushing for that last winning goal. Speaking of draws, roughly 25% of USL games end in a draw this season. There’s only been 1 so far in the month of August. In theory, with all of the above, there should be one or two draws this weekend. Looking at the below games I tried to pick the most logical chances of a draw.

 

The Games We Care About (winners in bold)-

Orlando vs Richmond – Since their last meeting (Richmond won) Orlando is 5-1-4 and Richmond 9-0-2. Orlando has been draw city since Dwyer left, and that lack of offense is going to be the difference against Richmond.

Pittsburgh vs Wilmington – Wilmington doesn’t have anything to play for, and the Hounds have been rolling lately.

Charleston vs Antigua – It’s Antigua…

Charlotte vs Tampa – This is draw #1. Both teams have been playing poorly lately and are about equal (even though Tampa is out of the playoffs).

Richmond vs Pittsburgh – Draw #2. These teams tied on opening day this season, and I feel like we’ll end the season the same way we started. Pittsburgh is a completely different team, but Richmond isn’t the best in the league for nothing. You could also see starters being rested here.

Harrisburg vs Dayton – Dayton is 2-8-2 since July 1 and are lucky to be in the payoffs. I don’t think they’ll give Harrisburg much trouble.

Charlotte vs Orlando – Like above Charlotte hasn’t been very good lately. Orlando should finish the year with a win.

Rochester vs LA – Rochester has nothing to play for. LA doesn’t really either (can’t really move up the ladder much if at all), but I feel like they’ll get a victory.

 

Final Table-

This puts Pittsburgh in 6th and on a road trip to Harrisburg. The ideal outcome for the Steel Army. The top 4 and bottom 4 are pretty much locked and there is very little chance of movement between the two based on the scenarios I’ve looked at. Charleston would have to somehow lose to Antigua, and Charlotte win out for there to be any changes. I find both of these highly unlikely. Richmond and Orlando will duke it out over 1 and 2. Harrisburg should be a lock at 3 (as long as they beat Dayton). Dayton is locked at 8 no matter what.

Personally I think this outcome is ideal not only for the Steel Army’s travel plans, but for the league. You get the battle of PA part 3 and the battle of the Carolina’s part 3. Orlando and LA played two very close games earlier in the season, both taking a win. Richmond vs Dayton… well you can’t win them all.

Here’s two more finals for fun. I removed both draws (assuming the draws come from games we don’t care about), and slated Charlotte to beat Tampa for no other reason than Tampa has nothing to play for. Everything else stayed the same. First up is Pittsburgh beating Richmond. Second is Richmond winning the match.

 

What this shows is small changes send the Hounds all over the table. Like I said earlier 6th is the sweet spot we want (and by that I mean the Steel Army so we can travel. I’m sure the Hounds have their own goals).

In the end my predictions could mean squat, but it gives you an idea of what we’re looking at this weekend. We’ll keep you up to date as matches are played and we get a better idea of who we’ll be facing in the first round.

-Vesty

-UPDATE-

I knew I would miss something staring at spreadsheets all night. I’ve been corrected about Wilmington having nothing to play for. They can still sneak into the playoffs. Wilmington needs 4 out of 6 points this weekend, a Tampa loss, and a Dayton loss to get in (Wilmington gets the tiebreaker against Dayton). If Wilmington wins out they’re in as long as Dayton doesn’t get a win against Harrisburg. Wilmington plays Pittsburgh and Antigua. While Antigua should be a win I don’t think they’ll get 3 against Pittsburgh.  As far as I’m concerned it’ll be the same results.