It’s been quite the tale of two halves this season. After an abysmal 1-9-4 (14 GF, 27 GA, -13 GD) through the first 14, the Hounds have gone 6-3-0 (15 GF, 12 GA, +3 GD) in the last nine; propelling themselves from the bottom of the table to the playoff bubble. “Who the hell knows where the season will go” has never been more true. It’s crazy how compact the table is this year. With (on average) five games to go there’s only 6 points separating 5th from 8th, and 6 points separating 8th from 14th. If any of these ten teams get streaky, for better or worse, they could find themselves competing in the postseason, or enjoying one of the new footgolf courses popping up everywhere. It’s exciting and nerve racking… and after being ready to write off the season numerous times, we’ll gladly take it.
With five games to go for the Hounds I’ve taken a look at the ten teams jockeying for the final playoff slot and looked at how they’re doing and what they’re going up against. I was almost spot on in my predictions last season. Let’s see if I’m two for two. Note these are in order per the table on 8/11, and not how I think they’ll finish.
Harrisburg City Islanders
Games remaining: 5
Season: 9-8-6, 33pts, 23 GP, +3 GD
Last 5: 4-0-1, 12 pts, 11 GF, 4 GA, +7 GD
We all through the Hounds were hot lately, but Harrisburg takes that title. After a middling start they’ve really turned it on recently, defeating such teams as LA Galaxy II and Orlando City. Four of Harrisburg’s five remaining games are on road (road record 4-4-2, 0 GD) with a double header in their final weekend. Harrisburg’s remaining opponents combined record is 44-39-29. Tough, but with the way they’re playing lately, not impossible to make the playoffs.
Rochester Rhinos
Games remaining: 5
Season: 8-8-7, 31pts, 23 GP, +2 GD
Last 5: 2-2-1, 4 GF, 2 GA, +2 GD
Rochester continues to be Rochester. They have by far lowest goals for on the season, but also the second lowest goals against. Rochester’s defensive play style allows them to hang around to the point where they don’t need a ton of goals for results. Three of their final five games are on the road with a back to back weekend. Rochester’s remaining opponents combined record 37-42-31. Unless their defense implodes, that sort of strength in schedule is right up their alley to squeek out a few more points and into the post season.
OKC Energy
Games remaining: 6
Season: 8-9-5, 29pts, 22 GP, 0 GD
Last 5: 2-2-1, 8 GF, 6 GA, +2 GD
Oklahoma has done pretty well for a first year expansion team, and don’t seem to be slowing down. They split their final six games being on the road and at home, however all their remaining road games are on the west coast. Luckily for them they’ve had success against teams like Arizona, Sacramento, and Orange County. The Energy’s remaining opponents records combined is 52-59-25. I pretty much give them a coin flip for their playoff chances.
OC Blues
Games remaining: 5
Season: 9-14-0, 27pts, 23 GP, -15 GD
Last 5: 1-4-0, 1 GF, 9 GA, -8 GD
The Blues have had kind of a crap season. They’re the only team that hasn’t drawn all season, and have an abysmal -15 GD. Yet the 9 wins they’ve managed are keeping them in the hunt. The Blues probably have the most favorable schedule, playing four of their final games at home (though their home record is a wash at 5-5-0). On the other hand their remaining opponents combined record is 46-29-33. With the slide they’ve been on and the tough remaining opponents, I don’t see the Blues making the cut.
Wilmington Hammerheads
Games remaining: 9
Season: 6-5-8, 26pts, 19 GP, 0 GD
Last 5: 1-3-1, 3 GF, 7 GA, -4 GD
Wilmington is the outlier of these teams with a whopping 9 games remaining due to a weird schedule. They are also the most likely to spoiler the Hounds postseason hopes. If it comes down to tie breaks they own the head to head record against the Hounds. That said the Hammerheads haven’t looked very good lately, and may have been further down the table if they actually played games. Wilmington hasn’t scored more than 1 goal in a game since June 21st, and coming up in August they have six games in 14 days, including west coast trip. I didn’t bother calculating their strength of schedule for the remaining games, but with their form lately and the crazy number of games they have to play, I don’t see them making it through the gauntlet.
Charleston Battery
Games remaining: 6
Season: 6-8-8, 26pts, 22 GP, -2 GD
Last 5: 2-0-3, 6 GF, 3 GA, +2 GD
The Battery have had a middling season as far as their usual standards go. That said they keep hanging around. They don’t look terrible, just mediocre. Four of their final six are at home, and their remaining opponents have a combined record of 54-56-26. I don’t have a ton to say about them, but based on their past, my gut thinks they have a good chance make it.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Games remaining: 5
Season: 7-11-5, 26pts, 23 GP, -10 GD
Last 5: 4-1-0, 11 GF, 8 GA, +3 GD
The Hounds have been hot lately. No doubt about it. But it may be too little too late. The Hounds split their remaining games home and away, play Arizona twice, and still have an MLS reserves team to play. But they do have a back to back weekend which have not been kind to the Hounds this season. Their opponents combined record as 28-47-21. This is actually the most favorable strength of schedule of the ten teams fighting for a spot. The Hounds need nothing but points in the remaining games. Mood: cautiously optimistic.
Charlotte Eagles
Games remaining: 5
Season: 7-13-3, 24pts, 23 GP, -8 GD
Last 5: 2-3-0, 6 GF, 9 GA, -3 GD
Charlotte hasn’t been very good this season, and with the franchise changing ownership next season there’s little incentive to do well. Four of their five remaining games at home though the Eagles don’t have a very good home record (3-6-1). Charlotte’s opponents combined record is 42-32-22. I just don’t see it.
Dayton Dutch Lions
Games remaining: 4
Season: 6-15-3, 21pts, 24 GP, -23 GD
Last 5: 1-1-3, 5 GF, 9 GA, -4 GD
With a league leading -23 GD, you can stick a fork in Dayton’s season right now. Two of their final four games are against Orlando and Richmond who are fighting for the 1 and 2 spot again. Dayton’s remaining opponents combined record is 34-10-23. Even if they can steal a point here and there, they don’t have the talent or games remaining to make it as far as I’m concerned.
Arizona United
Games remaining: 5
Season: 6-12-5, 21pts (-2), 23 GP, -16 GD
Last 5: 1-3-1, 6 GF, 7 GA, -1 GD
Arizona is doing about as well as they did last season, but on the bright side their ownership isn’t a joke this time. Four of their final five games are against same two teams, Pittsburgh and OKC. These four games between these three teams are going to make or break a couple seasons. Arizona’s remaining opponents combined record is 32-41-22. I don’t think they’ll finish dead last (hi Dayton!), but with their form and that deduction I don’t see them making the playoffs.
So there you have it. A long look at the final few games of the season. It’s an exciting, nerve racking time across the USL. Our eyes will be glued to the scoreboard all weekend. This is also the time we need everyone in section 202 giving it their all for the final two home games. Let’s give our boys the extra push needed to turn this season around from a train wreck into a playoff run.
#UNLEASH
